I asked the guys over at Pregame.com to give me their thoughts. Pregame.com is the largest sports betting news site compliant with U.S. law, and have been featured by ESPN, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, and hundreds of other national outlets. Pregame.com has agreed to provide us with exclusive insider analysis of how Las Vegas is looking at this week's Browns game.
Marco D’Angelo (Follow on twitter: @MarcoInVegas)
The Browns looked pretty sad last week in Oakland as the final score really didn't represent how that game really went. The scoreboard may have read that is was a 24-17 game but it was really far from that. The Browns scored a meaningless touchdown late when the Raiders were in Prevent mode. The Browns have now scored 17 or less in 4 of their 5 games. They have thrown the ball 106 times in the last 2 games. The Browns can't win if they keep throwing the ball this much. Where has the Browns running game gone as they have only run for 206 yards in the last 3 games. The Browns do have a few things going for them here. First they have a West Coast team traveling East to play a 1:00 game and that is always an advantage for the home team. I really don't like the fact that Seattle had a bye week after that huge win on the Road at the Giants 2 weeks ago. From a situational point it's hard to win back to back games on the road especially for a West Coast team playing on the East Coast. I see this as a low scoring game with Cleveland getting a 20-17 win.
Vegas Runner (Follow on twitter: @VegasRunner)
The Browns opened as 3 point home favorites and that is where the line sits today. But from what I've seen, it should come off that key number as we approach game-day. Initially the books were charging a 20 cent vig to lay -3 with the Browns but they are now charging bettors 20 cents to take +3 with the Seahawks. Since this has taken place early in the week, one has to conclude that the sharp money likes the dog in this game. Personally, I believe the value lies with the home team especially if books drop the price to -2.5 and it gets off that key number of 3, since 18% of NFL results land there. With the Seahawks having covered 3 straight games and the Browns having lost 3 straight against the spread, this appears like a case of "over-valued" vs "under-valued". The biggest reason beyond both teams ATS streak is the fact Seattle is coming into this game off a bye and prior to the week off, they beat the NY Giants on the road as 10 point dogs. Since recreational bettors have a tendency to over-react and almost always remember the last result they've seen, I believe the betting line is shaded in anticipation of that public money that should come in on the Seahawks. Since I believe the Browns are the better team and would be favored on a neutral field, getting them at -3 or less at home looks like the right side.
Bryan Leonard (Follow on twitter: @BLeonardSports)
Early start time for a west coast team traveling east is lessoned because of the off week for the Seahawks. Still Seattle is 4-15 ATS on the road the last few seasons even after winning outright at the Giants. Seattle entered the bye winning 2 of 3 with the lone loss coming by just two points against the Falcons. That said, still not believing in a Seahawk offense that had been held to 30 combined points the first three weeks. Cleveland has now lost two straight with their only victories on the season coming against the winless Colts and Dolphins. Still with road games on deck vs San Francisco and Houston this becomes a must win game for the host. Lean with Cleveland with the Under 42 likely being the better play.
Joe Gavazzi (visit at www.JoeGavazzi.com)
When last we left the Seahawks, they were returning a tipped pass the length of the field to secure a win against a NY Giant team that was driving for the winning score. Having 2 weeks to get fat after that victory is a bad omen for a poor traveling Seattle team. This team is just 3-9 ATS away under current HC Carroll and just 7-16 ATS L8+Y when visiting a team in an Eastern time zone. Their offensive woes will continue today as well traveled backup Charlie Whitehurst will probably get the nod to replace injured starter QB Jackson. He'll work behind an OL that has allowed a league high 20 sacks. Cleveland is just 1-6 ATS home MRT but behind the ever-improving QB McCoy and RB Hillis they can grind out a low scoring victory against a Seattle team that is in a very bad situation.