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Week 5 NFL Picks: Packers And Texans On Upset Watch

From Lions over Bears to Falcons over Packers, here are Week Five's picks.

Let's make it happen. It's a week filled with high octane showdowns, from Philly-Buffalo to Monday night's Bears-Lions game. Here are my picks for this week, complete with a bit of rationale to explain my madness. My picks are in bold. Lines are from Bodog (via OddsShark).

1PM:

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: I think this game will be a lot more high scoring than it should be. The over-under is 39, and I'm inclined to take the over...barely. The Chiefs rushing D isn't anything special, and if KC tries to stuff the box, Painter should be able to throw over the top or hit Dallas Clark once or twice over the middle. I think Cassel picks up a boatload of yards (so look for Bowe and Breaston to have decent games), but the Colts will win a squeaker, 21-20.

New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Carolina Panthers: Another odd line for me. I think Brees dismantles Carolina in a shootout, 45-34. But, stranger things have happened. It'll definitely be entertaining though.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: I learned my lesson in my survival league last week. Picking the Vikings is foolish. Until they prove me wrong, I don't care if they're playing the Arizona Wildcats, I'm taking their opponent and the points.

Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: I might get burned for this, but Philly's run defense stinks, Fitzpatrick has an arsenal of weapons and the Eagles are a mess right now.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: I'm a little surprised the Jags are actually favored in this one. Maybe a home bump? The Bengals, all things considered, aren't as bad as I thought they were. And the line has moved from an opening 1.5 to 3. Does Vegas know something I don't (aka Benson's suspension starting this week or something?) Their defense is decent and they have good skill players. This is more of a straight-up pick, but Dalton seems a bit further along than Gabbert in his progression so far, although Blaine has more upside in the long run.

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) @ Houston Texans: Taking the points and Run DMC. Plus Schaub doesn't have Andre Johnson. The line has moved down to 5.5 from 7 already, so if you can still get in at 7, do it. Otherwise, this line may keep moving towards the Raiders before game time.

New York Giants (-10) vs. Seattle Seahawks: Tavaris Jackson finally had his first good game of the year last week, and the Giants won a thriller. I expect NY to continue to get better as the year goes on and they get a little healthier. The 10 points is a tantalizing line, but it's a facade. The Giants win this one in a rout.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Tennessee Titans: Hard to pick the Steelers here, especially since Bodog won't even officially set a line (the -3 is from an aggregate site), but without Mendenhall and potentially Roethlisberger, it's a tough road contest for Pittsburgh. But it is must-win territory.

4PM:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: Wow, another scary Vegas line. The Bucs are clearly a better team, but it is a road game. I just would much rather trust Josh Freeman on the road than Alex Smith to do anything.

San Diego Chargers (-4) @ Denver Broncos: Think Phillip Rivers finally pulls it together to have a big game against the Broncos and the Chargers win by a TD going away.

New York Jets (+9) @ New England Patriots: The defense isn't as good as advertised this year, but the Jets always show up against the Patriots and 9 is too good a line to pass up. Yes, Tom Brady will be able to have success and I think the Pats end up winning this game, but I think Rob Ryan's team will be able to keep it close.

Sunday Night:

Atlanta Falcons (+6) vs. Green Bay Packers: Upset pick of the week. This line is dangerous; it is practically begging people to take the Pack. But, Atlanta typically does well at home, and Matt Ryan has looked better and better since Week 1.

Monday Night Football:

Detroit Lions (-6) vs. Chicago Bears: Lions and Matthew Stafford at home against a bad Chicago offensive line that didn't even trust Cutler to throw 20 passes a week ago? Yes, please.

Photographs by spatulated, Triple Tri, and chrischappelear used in background montage under Creative Commons. Thank you.